Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 1.593109 2.090983 2.758609 3.741043 5.188075e+00 7.305203e+00 1.076441e+01
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 1.152367 1.726025 2.639465 4.284444 7.378346e+00 1.344266e+01 2.779263e+01
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.863431 1.441042 2.505099 4.807279 1.031769e+01 2.518782e+01 8.140538e+01
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.677131 1.244144 2.438150 5.529284 1.508874e+01 5.288516e+01 3.351957e+02
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.536621 1.071887 2.342544 6.245254 2.199577e+01 1.202535e+02 2.300622e+03
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.403786 0.857492 2.036175 6.182222 2.722927e+01 2.345705e+02 2.474870e+04
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.303423 0.675840 1.715266 5.807031 3.129428e+01 4.347131e+02 1.528068e+06
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.247363 0.580827 1.589967 6.125101 4.275961e+01 1.244282e+03 NaN
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.214743 0.534253 1.592982 7.154189 7.011702e+01 7.487007e+03 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.191762 0.505470 1.646223 8.740873 1.301021e+02 2.063755e+05 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.165185 0.454489 1.583333 9.617558 2.092906e+02 8.283937e+08 NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.137705 0.389613 1.419515 9.462382 2.752605e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.112434 0.325383 1.229923 8.868272 3.366138e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.099045 0.297716 1.198347 9.929311 6.386616e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.087263 0.271250 1.155645 10.918723 1.255955e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.078284 0.251919 1.139533 12.441804 3.085083e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.070239 0.233099 1.113265 13.941445 8.558809e+03 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.060571 0.203973 0.999973 13.406093 1.416842e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.051783 0.175772 0.874168 12.173594 1.804990e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.046463 0.160863 0.829275 12.726769 5.240195e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.043346 0.154561 0.841356 15.046901 6.869056e+05 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.041112 0.151469 0.876914 18.815796 1.297073e+10 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 0.037890 0.142519 0.858522 20.829655 NaN NaN NaN